Tuesday, December 10, 2019

billboard BREAKDOWN - hot 100 - december 14, 2019

I've described weeks on the Hot 100 as 'deceptively busy', where it seems like there's a lot of shuffling around but not a lot has really happened in the long-term. Just as common, though, are the weeks where I'd argue there's a little more going on a deceptively quiet week - just because there weren't many new arrivals which'll thankfully keep this shorter doesn't mean there aren't things worth watching, especially for the implications to come.


Case in point, the top 10, where we've got another new #1 and a song that I frankly did not expect to seize the top spot so quickly: 'Heartless' by The Weeknd! And while there are questions of how long it'll hold the top spot that we'll get to, it's got the most robust trajectory I've seen a while: top spot on sales and on-demand streaming, a well-performing video, and real radio traction, which in the holiday season is pretty meaningful! This places 'Circles' by Post Malone at #2 and in a bit of an awkward position - elbowed off the top in sales, muscled back on streaming, and wavering near the top of radio... look, it was always a mostly weak #1, but I predict that it's not likely to regain the top spot. And the reason for that has to do with our #3 in its big return to the top 10: 'All I Want For Christmas Is You' by Mariah Carey. And make no mistake, if there's a year to fight for that #1, it's this one: dominant on streaming, a sales revival, holiday radio spins... yeah, if it wasn't for The Weeknd securing an early position, she'd have a much better shot at the top, and even then she's got momentum on her side. All of this is leaving 'Someone You Loved' by Lewis Capaldi out in the cold at #4, with shrinking sales and radio that's slipped into freefall - good. Unfortunately, it's likely that 'Memories' by Maroon 5 will probably replace it from #5 - a good radio run and strong sales will unfortunately do that, and it's exactly the sort of saccharine gunk that'll do well around the holidays. Then we have 'Good As Hell' by Lizzo knocked back a step to #6 - she'll probably recover thanks to the new video, but radio dominance can't quite ignore the sudden sales weakness... not a good sign. Also pushed back we have 'ROXANNE' by Arizona Zervas at #7 - yes, it's making a radio run, but it's a little softer on streaming than I expected, which might not be a good sign in the weeks ahead. Next we have a breakthrough into the top 10 I did not expect at all: 'Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree' by Brenda Lee at #8, because streaming and the radio is giving holiday music the sort of push that's pretty robust and hard to break, which if you're an artist looking to drop an album around this time... yeah, not promising. And to round things out, we've got 'Lose You To Love Me' by Selena Gomez at #9 - a bad streaming week, but the sales are okay and her radio push is massive, and along the same logic we have '10,000 Hours' by Dan + Shay and Justin Bieber at #10 - slightly better sales, but way more inconsistent radio, which is a sign of weakness.

And while we're there, our losers and dropouts! A couple really big and long-running ones here too: 'Goodbyes' by Post Malone ft. Young Thug, 'Suge' by DaBaby', 'Tip Of My Tongue' by Kenny Chesney, 'Hot Girl Summer' by Megan Thee Stallion, Nicki Minaj, and Ty Dolla $ign, 'Good Vibes' by Chris Janson, and finally 'One Thing Right' by Marshmello and Kane Brown. But more predictably, since the mass return of holiday music, we saw systemic losses across the board that'll likely be entrenched in the coming weeks - because again, this impacts both streaming and radio hits. So sure, we get the expected continued dips for 'Jerry Sprunger' by Tory Lanez and T-Pain to 97 and 'Follow God' from Kanye West at 91, along with the expected debut losses for 'Suicidal' by YNW Melly at 86, 'Vete' by Bad Bunny at 63, and Trippie Redd with 'Who Needs Love' at 82 and '6 Kiss' with YNW Melly and the now passed Juice WRLD at 80. And here's where there is an elephant in the room: yes, holiday music is entrenching itself and you can make the argument that Juice WRLD's career was flailing in a way XXXTENTACION's wasn't when he died, but I do expect a chart revival of some kind next week... but I would not put much stock in how big it'll be, just saying. So even though 'Bandit' by him and YoungBoy Never Broke Again fell to 40 this week, while I expect it to rebound, I don't see it making the top 10 or anything. And that's the thing about this time of year: even songs that might have momentum get short-circuited by the season, which is why 'Lover' by Taylor Swift fell to 32 and 'Even Though I'm Leaving' by Luke Combs slid to 38 and 'Take What You Want' by Post Malone ft. Travis Scott and Ozzy is at 60. Granted, the bigger impact is on old 2019 hits getting pushed out, like 'Truth Hurts' by Lizzo at 22, 'Only Human' by the Jonas Brothers at 34, 'Ran$om' by Lil Tecca at 37, 'Graveyard' by Halsey at 45, 'Talk' by Khalid at 49, 'I Don't Care' by Ed Sheeran and Justin Bieber at 50, 'Baby' by Lil Baby and DaBaby at 51, 'How Do You Sleep?' by Sam Smith at 54, and 'Old Town Road' by Lil Nas X and Billy Ray Cyrus slipping to 31. Also, we have a few stragglers that have never taken off properly like 'Heat' by Chris Brown and Gunna at 55, '223's' by YNW Melly and 9LOKKNINE at 74... but they suck, so I'm not complaining.

And you see the cause of all of this just by looking at our returns and gains, for which outside of some odd stragglers that won't last like 'F.N' by Lil Tjay at 93, 'Tusa' by Karol G and Nicki Minaj at 95, and 'RITMO' by The Black Eyed Peas and J Balvin at 98, the rest is holiday music. Dean Martin brings 'Let It Snow' back at 28, 'The Christmas Song' by Nat King Cole returns at 33, 'Feliz Navidad' by Jose Feliciano is at 39, 'Sleigh Ride' by The Ronettes is at 43, and Gene Autry has both 'Rudolph The Red-Nosed Reindeer' and 'Here Comes Santa Claus' at 44 and 48 respectively. And this also impacts the majority of our gains as well: we've already talked about Brenda Lee and Mariah Carey, but we've also got 'A Holly Jolly Christmas' by Burl Ives at 18, 'Jingle Bell Rock' by Bobby Helms at 23, 'It's The Most Wonderful Time' by Andy Williams at 24, and 'Last Christmas' by Wham! at 27. Outside of that and The Weeknd taking the #1... our gains are pretty scant, with a boost for 'Homesick' by Kane Brown to 88 - kind of makes sense around this time of year - and 'Show Yourself' by Idina Menzel and Evan Rachel Wood at 70... because it's from Frozen 2 and fitting this time of year.

Anyway, we've got a short list of new arrivals, so I hope you excuse me for keeping this brief if only because I've got a massive pileup of work around this time of year and just sticking with this list, starting with...



83. 'Tip Toe' by Roddy Ricch ft. A Boogie wit da Hoodie - so apparently Roddy Ricch dropped his debut album not too long ago... and I'll be honest, I've been kind of on the fence of whether to delve deeper into what he's put out, given that his content just hasn't impressed me much. And going through this... yeah, I'm still hesitant to hear more, because I'm not really impressed by this. A big problem is Roddy Ricch seemingly trying for an off-beat double-time to start up his chorus and verse that sounds painfully awkward against admittedly some great production with the layers of acoustic guitars, flutes, and crooning... which he doesn't need to do because otherwise he rides the beat pretty damn well! Of course, the other problem is the content, which is the same by-the-numbers flexing and gunplay and treating women as disposable that we always get, with the only thing interesting about A Boogie's verse is the Spongebob reference and how he seems to have a passing relationship with any sort of consistent flow. I dunno, the feeling I get these were elements that were added to make this song seem more interesting because the content isn't, but they all serve to detract from what could have been a better song - not bad, but this should be better.



72. 'Like It's Christmas' by the Jonas Brothers - so I don't think I've honed in on this enough in 2019, so let me get it on the record: even as someone who never really cared about the Jonas Brothers, their 'comeback' has been one of the most lazy and artistically-bankrupt non-events of this year - so why not end things off with a quick Christmas song cash-in? And let's start off with the obvious: you made the effort to get a horns section and produce it well, which you couldn't do on your own damn album, so why are all your handclaps obviously synthetic? Or was that a part of the shameless recycling of the DNCE you're interpolating or the blatant notes cribbed from Mariah's 'All I Want For Christmas Is You' in cadence and build-up? And that's about where I run out of things to say about this because this might be one of the most rote and flagrantly bland Christmas songs I've heard in a while, with zero pathos, warmth, or anything in terms of unique writing. Look, if you're trying to add something to the holiday canon, you have to try harder than this, because otherwise it's going to sound corporate, plastic, and inessential. You know, like this - next!



68. 'No Idea' by Don Toliver - it's not a good sign when I look at an artist, see that apparently he was responsible for a guest appearance on an album I covered, and then have no memory of him whatsoever. But here is Don Toliver, who was featured on Astroworld and now has a hit of his own thanks to TikTok, and... oh look, another guy who's riffing on Young Thug's sound and delivery but with less texture and a more annoying falsetto against a pileup of flutes and autotune. In other words, it's lyrically inert, sloppily produced, and trying for a seductive hookup where apparently they're on the road to self-destruction, which is a weird detail to include in any sort of love song, especially this one where the outro seems to lose any sort of coherence or direction in who it's talking to. So yeah, I can't really call this good either - let's move on.



47. 'Happy Holiday / The Holiday Song' by Andy Williams - okay, I'm normally familiar with the old canon of vintage Christmas songs, and I did not recognize this one from Andy Williams in comparison with 'It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year'. So let me walk you through this one: it actually predates the more well-known song by about twenty years, originally written in 1942 and cut first by Bing Crosby. And it's been covered a number of times since then - bundled into a medley first by Kay Thompson who mentored Williams, and then covered by acts as varied as Johnny Mathis and The Carpenters to She & Him - but it's not one you see covered often. Mostly because it's not good - yeah, the production is as bright and bouncy as ever with rich backing vocals and Williams' liquid baritone, but it plays to slightly more dated ragtime elements with its wonky cadence and a bunch of nonsense writing that feel weirdly kitschy, even for the time. It's just a weirdly awkward song that doesn't play to any of the strengths of the time or Williams, and I'm a little baffled why this of all things came back. I mean, it could be worse - it could be 'Grandma Got Run Over By A Reindeer' or something - but nah, I'm not a fan of this. 



11. 'Blinding Lights' by The Weeknd - and once again I'm stuck relying on The Weeknd to save a rough week on the Hot 100, this time with the more pop-leaning cut from the two singles he released with apparently an interpolation from 'Take On Me' by a-ha... and holy shit, this is great! Let's blow through the obvious criticisms first: between the buzzy analog synths, the groove jacked pretty directly from a-ha, and production that only seems to amplify that cascading retro vibe, you can absolutely tell The Weeknd is wallowing in his influences. But like with his darkwave flourishes on 'False Alarm', 'Blinding Lights' leans into what makes that sound work: enough genuine swell to feel immense, an insane catchy lead synth melody that actually has body and flair in comparison with how the sound would get cut to ribbons and gutted in the latter half of the 80s - or today - and while I wish the guitars would pick up a little more sizzle and go full new wave or post-punk, the fact that gurgling foundation does come through is a huge positive. More importantly, The Weeknd seems to get why the best a-ha songs work: they were melodramatic romantics who went big and operatic, which is why so much of the content is longing within a dramatic, frigid cityscape, and he's got the pipes and control of his range to make that work. Yes, I do think the song could have used more of an edge or darker growl - and the fact this song was melded first with a Mercedes ad that I didn't see is regrettable - but yeah, I needed The Weeknd to deliver a great song, and I easily like this more than 'Heartless', already a good song!

So yeah, obvious best of the week by a comfortable margin, but the worst... yeah, Jonas Brothers are getting this for as canned and disposable as 'Like It's Christmas' is, no question. Next week... tough to tell, as holiday music will solidify its grip and we'll have to see if a Juice WRLD tribute or a sophomore slump from Camila Cabello will break through, so stay tuned!

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